EV Uptake Projections

The EV Uptake Projections data provide Low, Medium and High projections of electric and fuel cell vehicle fleet numbers and electricity consumption from 2021 to 2050 on a per postcode basis. Provision of this data is free of charge. There are seven state/territory files with the Australian Capital Territory included in the New South Wales file. A national file is also available for those who would prefer all data downloaded in one step. A separate summary file is also provided which provides more aggregated data. Each download includes a file which describes all data labels used in the data files as well the scenario narrative and assumptions. Another file provides state level summaries of the postcode data. New versions of these data are planned to be released annually.

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Recognising the importance of electric vehicles to electricity and transport system planning, CSIRO has made this postcode level projection data available free of charge for research and business planning purposes. The scenarios were developed by CSIRO and the projections produced using its in-house transport models. An overview file is provided which describes all data labels used in the data files as well the scenario narrative and assumptions. The description includes how the scenarios relate to, or differ from the Australian Electricity Market Operator's Step change scenario.

There are two data types: number of vehicles and electricity consumption. The data is provided is at postcode level, recognising that some of the potential impacts of electric vehicle uptake may be felt more strongly in some locations than others, particularly in relation to the electricity distribution system. Projections are provided for 10 different vehicle types representing different sizes of passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, trucks and buses. Five types of electric vehicles are included: battery electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, non-plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, internal combustion vehicles. Two months in each year are included: June and December.

Further details on CSIRO's electric vehicle and transport projection modelling methods can be accessed via recent publications such as Electric vehicle projections 2021 available from https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/inputs-assumptions-methodologies/2021/csiro-ev-forecast-report.pdf?la=en.