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Picture of Agri-Climate Metrics - Projections (File Download)

Agri-Climate Metrics - Projections (File Download)

Increasing risk from exposure to higher temperatures and changing rainfall create challenges for agriculture in Australia. It is prudent that these risks are assessed to help inform strategies for mitigation and adaptation that can then be integrated into ongoing planning and operational decision-making. To facilitate this, the CSIRO Climate Science Centre has produced datasets of climate metrics relevant to agriculture for recent and projected future climate conditions.

IN DEVELOPMENT, FOR ACCESS INFORMATION: climate@csiro.au

Data are provided on a 5km grid covering all of Australia's land areas.

Agri-climate metrics have been computed for a recent historical period (1961–2021) for three future time periods in the 21st Century - 2016-2045, 2036-2065 and 2056-2085, for three future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low-emissions - RCP2.6, mid-range emissions - RCP4.5, and high-emissions - RCP8.5). Agri-climate metrics relevant to the grains, sheep and beef sectors are currently available: 

Grains

 - Growing season rainfall: The total rainfall between 1st April to 31st October.

 - Summer fallow rainfall: The total rainfall between 1st November to 31st March (of the following year).

 - Late season frost risk: The number of days per year where the minimum temperature falls below 0 °C between 1st August and 15th October.

 - Late season heat risk: The number of days per year where the maximum temperature exceeds 32 °C between 1st August and 30th November.

Sheep and beef (southern regions)

 - Heat risk at joining: The number of days per year where the maximum temperature exceeds 32 °C between 15th January and 15th June.

 - Autumn rainfall: The total rainfall between 1st March and 30th May.

 - Spring rainfall: The total rainfall between 1st September and 30th November.

Beef (northern regions)

 - Wet season rainfall: The total rainfall between 1st October and 30th April (of the following year).

 - Dry season rainfall: The total rainfall between 1st May and 30th September.

 

The agri-climate metrics have been derived from daily temperature and rainfall data created by applying future climate changes simulated by a selection of CMIP5 Global Climate Models (MIROC5, ACCESS1-0, CESM1-CAM5, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2 and NORESM1-M) to Australian Bureau of Meteorology AGCD observations using the quantile-quantile scaling, or "QQ-scaling" method. This method results in future climate data that are minimally affected by climate model biases and are more detailed in terms of spatial resolution than the raw climate model output.

 The agri-climate metrics provide initial guidance on possible future climate conditions across Australia relevant to agriculture. In conjunction with other information about climate change, they can be used to inform assessments of climate change impacts at locations across the country. Note, however, that regional variation in the farming calendar will mean that calculations used in these metrics will not always correspond to farming patterns for a given location. 

Prior to purchasing data, potential users are encouraged to download the free sample provided to check that the data will meet their needs.

Note that it is anticipated that this product will be superseded by a product based on more recent, CMIP6, climate modelling. The currently available CMIP5-based product allows users to gain familiarity with the data formats and use cases of the coming CMIP6-based product.  

Conditions of use and acknowledgement

THIS CONTENT WILL ALSO BE PLACED UNDER PRODUCT-SPECIFIC TERMS ON https://agdatashop.csiro.au/conditions-of-use UNDER THE TITLE "Agri-Climate Metrics"

Use of the data is subject to the CSIRO Data Shop conditions of use (https://agdatashop.csiro.au/conditions-of-use). In addition:

  • The ‘Subscription Period’ covered by the Subscription Fee is 6 months. 
  • Works of the Recipient derived from the Data must contain the acknowledgement:

"The application-ready climate projections were created by the CSIRO Climate Science Centre with the assistance of resources from the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI Australia), a capability enabled by the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy supported by the Australian Government. The Data contain modified information from the Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset. The World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling is responsible for CMIP5 and climate modelling groups around the world make model output available to it. For CMIP5 the United States Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organisation for Earth System Science Portals."

Further information and feedback

Detailed information about how the dataset was generated and the strengths and limitations of the data is available in a report:

Bodman R, and Mitchell P (2024) AgriMetrics Climate Indices. CSIRO Climate Innovation Hub Technical Note 3 

AS OF 24/06/2024 THIS IS A DRAFT REPORT AWAITING EXTERNAL REVIEW AND APPROVAL TO PUBLISH

You are encouraged to contact us at climate@csiro.au if you require assistance with the data, including its interpretation. Feedback on the data, including on its utility, documentation, pricing and conditions of use is welcome.

Picture of Growing Season Rainfall - Projections

Growing Season Rainfall - Projections

Increasing risk from exposure to higher temperatures and changing rainfall create challenges for agriculture in Australia. It is prudent that these risks are assessed to help inform strategies for mitigation and adaptation that can then be integrated into ongoing planning and operational decision-making. To facilitate this, the CSIRO Climate Science Centre has produced datasets of climate metrics relevant to agriculture for recent and projected future climate conditions.
$0.00 excl tax
Picture of Summer Fallow Rainfall - Projections

Summer Fallow Rainfall - Projections

Increasing risk from exposure to higher temperatures and changing rainfall create challenges for agriculture in Australia. It is prudent that these risks are assessed to help inform strategies for mitigation and adaptation that can then be integrated into ongoing planning and operational decision-making. To facilitate this, the CSIRO Climate Science Centre has produced datasets of climate metrics relevant to agriculture for recent and projected future climate conditions.
$0.00 excl tax
Picture of Late Season Frost Risk - Projections

Late Season Frost Risk - Projections

Increasing risk from exposure to higher temperatures and changing rainfall create challenges for agriculture in Australia. It is prudent that these risks are assessed to help inform strategies for mitigation and adaptation that can then be integrated into ongoing planning and operational decision-making. To facilitate this, the CSIRO Climate Science Centre has produced datasets of climate metrics relevant to agriculture for recent and projected future climate conditions.
$0.00 excl tax
Picture of Late Season Heat Risk - Projections

Late Season Heat Risk - Projections

Increasing risk from exposure to higher temperatures and changing rainfall create challenges for agriculture in Australia. It is prudent that these risks are assessed to help inform strategies for mitigation and adaptation that can then be integrated into ongoing planning and operational decision-making. To facilitate this, the CSIRO Climate Science Centre has produced datasets of climate metrics relevant to agriculture for recent and projected future climate conditions.
$0.00 excl tax
Picture of Heat Risk at Joining - Projections

Heat Risk at Joining - Projections

Increasing risk from exposure to higher temperatures and changing rainfall create challenges for agriculture in Australia. It is prudent that these risks are assessed to help inform strategies for mitigation and adaptation that can then be integrated into ongoing planning and operational decision-making. To facilitate this, the CSIRO Climate Science Centre has produced datasets of climate metrics relevant to agriculture for recent and projected future climate conditions.
$0.00 excl tax
Picture of Autumn Rainfall - Projections

Autumn Rainfall - Projections

Increasing risk from exposure to higher temperatures and changing rainfall create challenges for agriculture in Australia. It is prudent that these risks are assessed to help inform strategies for mitigation and adaptation that can then be integrated into ongoing planning and operational decision-making. To facilitate this, the CSIRO Climate Science Centre has produced datasets of climate metrics relevant to agriculture for recent and projected future climate conditions.
$0.00 excl tax
Picture of Spring Rainfall - Projections

Spring Rainfall - Projections

Increasing risk from exposure to higher temperatures and changing rainfall create challenges for agriculture in Australia. It is prudent that these risks are assessed to help inform strategies for mitigation and adaptation that can then be integrated into ongoing planning and operational decision-making. To facilitate this, the CSIRO Climate Science Centre has produced datasets of climate metrics relevant to agriculture for recent and projected future climate conditions.
$0.00 excl tax
Picture of Wet Season Rainfall - Projections

Wet Season Rainfall - Projections

Increasing risk from exposure to higher temperatures and changing rainfall create challenges for agriculture in Australia. It is prudent that these risks are assessed to help inform strategies for mitigation and adaptation that can then be integrated into ongoing planning and operational decision-making. To facilitate this, the CSIRO Climate Science Centre has produced datasets of climate metrics relevant to agriculture for recent and projected future climate conditions.
$0.00 excl tax
Picture of Dry Season Rainfall - Projections

Dry Season Rainfall - Projections

Increasing risk from exposure to higher temperatures and changing rainfall create challenges for agriculture in Australia. It is prudent that these risks are assessed to help inform strategies for mitigation and adaptation that can then be integrated into ongoing planning and operational decision-making. To facilitate this, the CSIRO Climate Science Centre has produced datasets of climate metrics relevant to agriculture for recent and projected future climate conditions.
$0.00 excl tax