Rooftop Solar Uptake Projections

The Rooftop Solar Uptake Projections data provide Low, Medium and High projections of the number and capacity of residential and business deployment of solar photovoltaics less than 100kW from 2021 to 2050 on a per postcode basis. Projections for photovoltaic systems larger than 100kW but less than 30MW (so-called Non-Scheduled Generators) are also provided. There are seven state/territory files with the Australian Capital Territory included in the New South Wales file. A national file is also available. An overview file is provided which describes all data labels used in the data files as well as the scenario narrative and assumptions. State summaries of the postcode data are also included. New versions of these data are planned to be released annually.

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Recognising the need for utilities and governments to have access to postcode level projections of rooftop solar uptake, CSIRO has developed projections based on three scenarios: Low, Medium and High. An overview file is provided which describes all data labels used in the data files as well as the scenario narratives and assumptions. The description includes how the scenarios relate to, or differ from the Australian Electricity Market Operator's Step change scenario.

There are two data types: number of installations and capacity. The data is provided at postcode level, recognising that some of the potential impacts of rooftop solar may be stronger in some locations that others, particularly in relation to the electricity distribution system. Projections are provided for three sectors, residential, business (less than 100kW) and non-scheduled generators (greater than 100kW and less than 30MW). Two months in each year are included: June and December.

Further details on CSIRO's rooftop solar projection modelling methods can be accessed via recent publications such as Small-scale solar and battery projections available from https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/inputs-assumptions-methodologies/2021/csiro-der-forecast-report.pdf?la=en